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I'm Stupid.

Because I'm going to make a prediction. This is not a wish. This is a prediction.

As you no doubt know by now, Sandra Dee has retired. Here's what will happen now:

  1. Bush, knowing how much the future of jurisPRUDENCE in this country is at stake, and in spite of his lameduckness, will nominate the worst... the absolute worst nightmare nominee for the seat. I can't say who it will be, but that's what it will be. He and his people, increasingly out of touch with mainstream Americans, and more and more inept at their infamous "I connect with the real people" routine, will overreach horrifically.
  2. The left, knowing how much the future of jurisPRUDENCE in this country is at stake, will pick this field to stand on and fight the Armageddon we've all been waiting for... no one will be Left Behind.
  3. The right, knowing how much the future of jurisPRUDENCE in this country is at stake, will go absolutely crazy. Demands and propaganda will be as thick as locusts on a Mormon homestead.
  4. The left, to the astonishment of all, will rise to the occasion. It will fight this battle in the manner it has been teaching itself to fight these battles ever since the last election, only this time it will do it with brains and precision.
  5. The right will crack first. They will do something incredibly stupid, I don't know what, something of Shiavo proportions probably, and the public, already dubious about the hard-right, will finally turn on them.
  6. I don't know how the nomination process will resolve itself, but here is what I am willing to predict: This will be the beginning of the end of the hard-right, Texas GOP's domination of politics in this country.

Yes, that's right, I'm predicting the end of the Christocrats. When it's over, please feel free to kiss the hem of my robes.


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If optimism is stupid, I don't want to be smart. (-8

Oh, I really hope you're right. My secretary was listening to NPR this morning when I got to work and she broke it to me as gently as possible. I almost cried.

And no, for the record, I have not agreed with every decision Sandy's made--the actual nonsensical and unjustified breaks (many, many breaks) with precedent in the various opinions that make up Bush v. Gore, for example. Some of the religious cases. But I have a lot of respect for the process she put behind most of the decisions she made. Outside of it being one of the lefties, this couldn't really be worse, in my opinion. Now who is going to write the well organized opinions with headers and introductions and conclusions? Certainly not Scalia.

I will happily abase myself and kiss any hem you present should you be right. I surely do hope so.

If you're right I'll kiss anything you want. Oh PLEASE be right.


The problem being that when the Conservative/Christian Maoist coalition drives the car off the road, we're stuck in with them.

All of that will probably happen, but probably not enough to overcome Step 2, when they suddenly appear to come to their senses, the nominee withdraws himself from consideration, and Bush nominates someone else who is only slightly less horrible and the Democrats have all gone to sleep again because they "won" already.

I think it's quite possible that an anti-choice, anti-civil-liberties, anti-separation of church and state, hard right conservative will ultimately replace O'Connor. You'll note that I'm not predicting what the outcome will be with regard to the seat. I'm predicting that it will be the beginning of the end of the domination of the Texas GOP.

I regret to say that my prediction will probably be made more certain by a hard-right conservative taking the seat. A court that repeatedly offends the sensibilities of the nation will probably hasten the downfall of the Texas GOPers.

I'm not saying losing the seat to a hard-right conservative will somehow, in the end, be worth it. But if it does happen that way, all will not be lost. It will simply be left to the people to take back their legislatures, state and federal, from the Texas GOP wing of the Republican party. And, in fact, I think they will do it. Especially if a hard-right Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.

I think there has been a tendency since, I dunno, Brown v. Board of Ed. for the left to look upon the courts as a variety of Philosopher Kings. "The people are stupid so thank gawd we have these Philosopher Kings saving us from them".

As long as these Philosopher Kings in black robes ruled for civil rights and so forth, these Kings were acceptable. After all, it's a lot easier living under the rule of an enlightened Philosopher King than it is having to go through all the mess of participating in your democracy.

But as the hard-right will tell you, Philosopher Kings can go sour on you. Their rulings can start stinking up the joint as they have lately, and as they will increasingly, if the Supreme Court goes hard right. When that happens, it's time to turn away from them. It's time to turn back to the genuinely democratic branch of our government. It's time to pit the tyranny of the majority against the rule of the Philosopher Kings.

In that battle -- assuming it remains within the bounds of the Constitution -- the will of the people will always emerge triumphant. The majority can always exercise its tyranny over the Philosopher Kings -- up to and including, if necessary, removing the Philosopher Kings from their thrones. The hard-right fantasizes about it, but of course the people wouldn't really stand for it over messes like Schiavo, etc. If the Philosopher Kings overturn Roe v. Wade, however, I think it will be a different story.

If the majority will not stand for choice being taken away from women, then women will continue to have choice. The Philosopher Kings have failed us in this, as evidenced by the unavailability of abortion in many areas of this country. It is time for the people to speak again, through their legislatures. The biggest problem is not hanging on to a women's right to choose. The biggest problem is getting the people over their reliance on the heretofore, but-now-no-more, enlightened rule of their Philosopher Kings.

It may be time for the left to take advantage of the increasingly anti-liberty nature of our Philosopher Kings. It may be time for the left to start using the rulings of the hard-right courts to turn the eyes of the Republic away from its Philosopher Kings and back toward the potential for (enlightened, one hopes) tyranny that they, themselves, hold in their own hands.

In short, I don't see the problem with taking the battle back into the legislatures if we have to. Except that it's a pain in the ass, of course. To be honest, it is easier to live under an Enlightened Philosopher King. Until he goes bad on you, of course. So I dunno... maybe this the God of Democracy's way of telling the people they have to start paying attention and participating again.

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